In a developing story that could reshape the landscape of Major League Baseball, the New York Yankees are positioning themselves for what could be one of the most significant pursuits in recent free agency history. Their target? Toronto Blue Jays’ slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr., could hit the open market following the 2025 season if he doesn’t reach an extension agreement with the Blue Jays by his February 17 deadline.

According to MLB insider Jon Heyman of the New York Post, despite signing Paul Goldschmidt to a one-year bridge deal at first base, the Yankees are emerging as a natural landing spot for the Blue Jays slugger should he reach free agency. While Goldschmidt provides immediate stability at first base, the Yankees maintain a strong interest in Guerrero’s long-term potential as their cornerstone at the position.

Three-way battle for slugger

However, the pursuit of Guerrero promises to be fiercely competitive. The New York Mets, fresh off their historic 15-year, $765 million acquisition of Juan Soto, are expected to be major players in the Guerrero sweepstakes. With uncertainty surrounding Pete Alonso’s future, the Mets could view Guerrero as the perfect addition to their already star-studded lineup featuring Soto and Francisco Lindor.

The Boston Red Sox, dealing with ongoing speculation about Triston Casas’s future, represent another potential landing spot. Their involvement could add another chapter to the storied Yankees-Red Sox rivalry, this time in the free-agent market.

“If Guerrero does get to free agency, the Mets and some Soto also-rans — including the Red Sox and Yankees — are logical pursuers,” Heyman wrote. “If Guerrero once hated the Yankees — and he previously suggested half-seriously that he did; George Steinbrenner once changed his mind on a deal for his dad and signed Gary Sheffield instead — that’s long over. Word is, he holds nothing against the Yankees now. That’s worth knowing if the Jays don’t get this done.”

Evolution Guerrero into a superstar

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., now entering his prime at age 26, has transformed from a highly-touted prospect into one of baseball’s most formidable offensive forces. His 2024 campaign showcased his exceptional hitting prowess, as he posted an impressive .323/.396/.544 slash line, complemented by 30 home runs and 103 RBIs across 159 games. Perhaps most remarkably, Guerrero demonstrated exceptional plate discipline, striking out just 96 times throughout the season.

The durability factor cannot be overlooked in Guerrero’s rise to stardom. Since 2020, he has proven to be one of the most reliable players in the league, missing no more than six games per season. This consistency, combined with his accumulated 21.5 bWAR over six MLB seasons, has established him as a cornerstone player worthy of a potential record-breaking contract.

A complex defensive equation

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While Guerrero’s offensive capabilities are undeniable, his defensive metrics present a more nuanced picture. The 2024 season saw him post -10 Outs Above Average and -1 Defensive Runs Saved at first base, statistics that might give some teams pause. However, his track record includes a 2022 Gold Glove at first base, and his experience at third base early in his career demonstrates valuable positional flexibility.

The financial landscape

Industry experts at Spotrac have set an initial market value projection at 12 years and $427 million for Guerrero. However, this figure could prove conservative, especially if Guerrero maintains his offensive excellence through 2025. With multiple deep-pocketed suitors expected to enter the bidding, industry insiders suggest the final number could surpass $500 million, potentially approaching the upper echelons of MLB contracts.

Yankees’ strategic imperative

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The Yankees’ interest in Guerrero isn’t merely opportunistic—it’s strategic necessity. Currently, the team is relying on 37-year-old Paul Goldschmidt at first base, a temporary solution following Anthony Rizzo’s injury-plagued seasons. While Goldschmidt brings veteran leadership and a decorated resume including an NL MVP award and four Gold Gloves, the Yankees recognize the need for a younger, long-term solution at the position.

The potential pairing of Guerrero with Aaron Judge, the Yankees’ two-time AL MVP, could create one of the most potent offensive duos in baseball history. This combination would not only address the team’s aging roster concerns but could also propel them back into serious championship contention.

From Yankees animosity to opportunity

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Perhaps the most intriguing subplot in this developing story is Guerrero’s evolved perspective on the Yankees organization. MLB insider Jon Heyman recently revealed a significant shift in Guerrero’s stance: “If Guerrero once hated the Yankees—and he previously suggested half-seriously that he did—that’s long over. Word is, he holds nothing against the Yankees now.”

This transformation is particularly noteworthy given the historical context. Guerrero’s previous antipathy stemmed from George Steinbrenner‘s decision to sign Gary Sheffield instead of his father, Vladimir Guerrero Sr. The resolution of this old grievance could prove pivotal in any future negotiations.

Backup plans and market dynamics

The Yankees aren’t putting all their eggs in one basket. Japanese sensation Munetaka Murakami has declared his intention to transition to MLB after the 2025 season, and YES Network’s Michael Kay has reported the Yankees’ interest in the slugger as a potential alternative.

The San Diego Padres have emerged as an intriguing dark horse in the Guerrero sweepstakes, with Yu Darvish’s mentorship of the young star potentially playing a role in their pursuit. This adds another layer of complexity to what promises to be a fascinating free-agent saga.

Looking ahead

As baseball observers count down to the February 17 extension deadline, the implications of Guerrero’s potential free agency continue to expand. For the Yankees, securing his services would represent more than just adding an elite talent—it would signal a commitment to building a younger, more dynamic roster while maintaining their tradition of pursuing the game’s biggest stars.

The financial stakes are unprecedented, with the possibility of a contract exceeding $500 million looming large. Yet for teams like the Yankees, the opportunity to secure a generational talent entering his prime years might justify such a massive investment.

Whether Guerrero ultimately reaches free agency remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: his situation will dominate baseball headlines throughout the 2025 season, potentially setting the stage for one of the most significant free agent pursuits in MLB history. The Yankees, with their resources, market size, and competitive aspirations, are positioned to be at the center of what could be a transformative moment for the franchise and the sport as a whole.