If there’s one thing we know about Juan Soto’s free agency, it’s that he will not take a hometown discount to stay with the Yankees, despite a successful first season in the Bronx. Soto’s goal has always been to set contract records, or at least threaten them. The Yankees’ hope isn’t that they can outbid and overwhelm Steve Cohen and John Henry; it’s that they believe, if they can keep matching or staying tight with the highest bids, he’ll prefer the culture they’ve created.
That seemed like a safe bet, though the Mets have overwhelming coin, and his childhood favorite team, the Boston Red Sox, are a sentimental favorite, especially given the guidance of Big Papi. It’s not at all ridiculous to think that Boston could have the same edge the Yankees were trying to cultivate over the Mets, as long as the offers are close. In fact, that seems likely.
But with Boston and the Flushing club both firmly in the conversation, there’s more pressure on Hal Steinbrenner than ever. He already couldn’t lose Soto. Losing Soto to the Red Sox because you underbid? That would be disastrous. That can’t happen. And if it did happen, the details of his bid could never get out.
That’s what makes Yankees beat writer Randy Miller’s weekend radio rant so unbelievable. In an appearance, Miller (who had Soto’s five bids reported last week), claimed the Yankees have no desire to go over $550 million for Soto, and will finish fourth while fearing Boston.
They certainly should fear the Red Sox. The fit makes perfect sense. But if they respond to that fear by not budging at all and finishing fourth to an unnamed team in third, effectively bowing out of the race? Hal “I Know What’s Expected of Me” Steinbrenner would never be allowed to show his face again in New York. And it’s hard to fathom a single reason anyone would leak that ever, let alone ahead of time.
Yankees beat writer Randy Miller claims New York will finish fourth in Juan Soto race
If I’m the Yankees, and one of my beat writers popped into the middle of my leverage-creating phase by leaking a ridiculously low “max” offer I was planning to pursue, I’d simply revoke their credentials. You know what? If that’s the end result of this radio appearance, then maybe it was a net good, actually.
At this moment, absolutely no one benefits from this information hitting the market, except for Miller, who got to blab on air and capture the news cycle for 24 hours. The Yankees don’t benefit from the Mets and Red Sox “knowing” they don’t care about retaining a generational talent. Scott Boras doesn’t benefit from someone crashing into the negotiations like the Kool-Aid Man and downgrading the proceedings. The Mets and Red Sox would benefit from the Yankees leaving the applicant pool, but seeing as that’s very unlikely to happen, they can’t stake much on Miller’s guesswork; even he admits that two or three offers over $600 million is “what he believes,” but hasn’t been confirmed.
Anyway, here’s Miller claiming the Yankees had no intention of talking to Marcus Stroman, who they signed a few days later.
It was common guesswork at the time that Stroman wouldn’t be a fit in the Bronx. But it wasn’t accurate!
Bottom line? If Miller’s reporting is accurate, then yes, the Yankees spit the bit here. Right now, it makes no sense for Soto to be inclined to backstab the fans that so lovingly welcomed him daily in the Bronx and “embrace the hate”. If the Yankees’ offer is this comically low, that heel turn makes a little more sense.
But if the bids top out at “over $600 million,” as he claimed, that’s about $100 million shy of where we were assured Steve Cohen would go to get this done. Given rumblings about Boston bumping their offer, and the Yankees reportedly “aggressively” shifting gears prior to the holiday, every single number mentioned above sounds low. Hopefully, Miller’s recent track record indicates his estimations are off once more here.
