The Grizzlies are looking like a fringe contender again but one key stat shows their elite defense may be a mirage right now.

Washington Wizards v Memphis Grizzlies / Justin Ford/GettyImages

The Grizzlies had high hopes for this season — Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Brandon Clarke and Marcus Smart back and healthy, rookie Zach Edey bringing his massive frame and soft touch to the middle of the floor. The idea was that an intact roster, with some minor upgrades, would put them back on their ascendent trajectory and so far that’s been the case.

Through 11 games, the Grizzlies are 7-4 with the fifth-best net rating in the league and they’re one of just two teams (along with the Celtics) ranked in the top seven in the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency. But all of those strong indicators are surface level — dig a little deeper and things aren’t as rosy as they appear.

The Grizzlies’ seven wins have come against the Jazz, Magic, Bucks, 76ers, Lakers, Wizards and Trail Blazers. That would have been much more impressive before the season started but, with how terribly the Bucks and 76ers have played, the Lakers and Magic are the only wins in that group that are remotely impressive. They’ve also lost to the Nets twice, as well as the Rockets and Bulls. Essentially, they’ve played the easiest schedule in the league so far and there are signs that at least some of their success has been a mirage.

The Grizzlies defense is allowing just 108.4 points per 100 possessions, the fifth-best mark in the league. But a big part of that number is the fact that opponents are shooting abnormally poorly against them, in ways that can’t really be attributed to defense. The Grizzlies are allowing 38.1 open and wide-open 3-pointers per game this season, the most in the league and opponents are shooting just 33.2 percent on those attempts, the third-lowest mark.

These are shots where, by definition, no defender is within four or six feet of the shooter. Essentially, the defense has already broken at this point by allowing the opening. Whether the shot goes in or not depends entirely on the shooter which means the Grizzlies are benefiting tremendously from luck here.

The league average on those open and wide open 3-point shots is 36.3 percent. If that’s what opponents had hit against the Grizzlies on the same number of attempts they would have allowed an additional 13 points so far this season, dropping their defensive efficiency from fifth to seventh. There is an argument to be made that the Grizzlies could actually be causing this rough shooting by being intentional about which opponents are left open beyond the 3-point line, like on this Deandre Ayton attempt that no one really bothers to try and close out on.

The Grizzlies gave up 10 wide-open 3-pointers to Jalen Suggs — he hit 40.1 percent of those last year. They gave up 9 wide-open 3-pointers to Coby White — he hit 41 percent of those last year. They gave up 11 open and wide-open to LeBron James — he hit 40.5 percent of those last year. Austin Reaves, Fred VanVleet, Brook Lopez, Jerami Grant; guards, wings, bigs — the Grizzlies are giving up a ton of open shots to very good shooters.

To be fair, the Grizzlies don’t give up a ton of shots in the paint but part of that is because open shots around the perimeter have been so easy to come by. A lot of thse open shots are coming from drive-and-kick set-ups and their surrendering an assist on 10.1 percent of their opponent’s drives a number that’s in the bottom half of the league and almost certainly driven down by the cold shooting from opponents we’ve been discussing.

It would be one thing if this was a strategic trade-off but forcing opponent misses has been the only real noteworthy thing about the Grizzlies defense so far. They foul a lot and are merely average at forcing turnovers and on the offensive glass. Their defensive performance has stood out because their opponents are missing a lot of shots, but this looks more like luck than system or execution.

All this is to say, the Grizzlies are certainly better than they were last season. But they still have a lot to work out and in two or three weeks will probably look closer to a league-average team than a championship contender.

NBA news roundup:

The Thunder lost their first two games of the season last week, as well as center Chet Holmgren. He took a hard fall in Sunday’s loss to the Warriors, suffering a pelvic fracture that will keep him out for at least two months and possibly more.

The star injuries are piling up. In addition to Holmgren, Jimmy Butler is out with a sprained ankle, Anthony Davis left a win over the Raptors because of an eye injury, Kevin Durant is out with a calf strain and Zion Williamson is out with a hamstring strain. That’s in addition to players who have already been on the shelf — Kawhi Leonard, Joel Embiid, Scottie Barnes, Kristaps Porzingis, Aaron Gordon, Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Dejounte Murray, CJ McCollum, Isaiah Hartenstein, Tyrese Maxey and Paolo Banchero. Looking a little bleak out there right now.

Bronny James played his first G League game for the South Bay Lakers, putting up 6 points, 4 assists, 3 rebounds, 2 steals and a block. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he did all that in 31 minutes while shooting 2-of-10 from the field, 0-of-5 from beyond the arc and piling up 5 turnovers.

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The Nuggets are making it work, barely

Denver looked dead in the water after dropping their first two games and then losing Aaron Gordon to a calf injury. But they’ve now win six of their last seven games, picking up wins over the Thunder, Heat and Mavericks and outscoring opponents by 6.6 points per 100 possessions over that stretch.

But nothing is coming easy — five of those wins have come by five points or less and it’s taken Nikola Jokic pushing his game to a new level this season. He’s leading the league in both assists and rebounds, averaging 29.7 points, 13.7 rebounds and 11.7 assists per game, shooting 56.3 percent from the field and 56.4 percent from beyond the arc.

Michael Porter Jr. has stepped up to shoulder some of the load with Gordon out and it helps that young wings Christian Braun and Peyton Watson are shooting a combined 54.5 percent from beyond the arc on just over six attempts per game over this seven-game stretch. But Jamal Murray still looks off, Russell Westbrook has been a mixed bag and depth continues to be a huge question mark.

The Nuggets are making it work for now, but how long will this formula hold up?