With Toronto re-signing Jake McCabe on Monday, GM Brad Treliving needs to focus his attention now on Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and Matthew Knies’ contracts.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are at an impasse this year. Going into the season with high expectations, it’s been a rough ride so far into 2024-2025. The team at least tried to ensure their defensive core doesn’t change, re-signing Jake McCabe to a five-year deal on Monday. This gives Toronto a Top 4 of Morgan Rielly, Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and McCabe, and while it may not be the best defense in the NHL, it’s a solid group filled with players who fit specific roles.

With two of their Core Four contracts expiring at the end of this season, a lot of focus is now on Brad Treliving’s ability to re-sign them, or whether he should thank them for their time and wish them the best in their future endeavors. Let’s take a look at each player and see what the result may be:

Matthew Knies

It’s been so refreshing to have Matthew Knies on the Maple Leafs. Emerging last year as a huge part of Toronto’s top line, he’s become integral to the success of their top line alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner (more on him later).

Scoring in three of his last five games, Knies has picked it up recently after exploding with 35 points last season in his first full season. Standing 6’2, 210 pounds, he offers not only dynamic offensive skills and a great defensive IQ but a bigger body alongside Matthews to take care of Mitch Marner. Not afraid to throw hits either, having 17 already this season and is on pace for roughly 160 hits which would put him again near the top of the Maple Leafs in terms of physicality.

Extremely young and still full of untapped potential, Knies’ future with the Maple Leafs needs to be set in stone quickly especially given they may lose some key figures come summertime. If Mitch Marner ends up walking, look for Knies to have an even bigger role which could see him break out in a huge way.

Projected Result: Re-Signs with Toronto on a 4-year, $25M deal. (AAV $6.25M)

Mitch Marner

Speaking of Marner, a lot of questions surrounded not only his preparedness for the season but coming into a contract year: How would he play? Will he blow everyone out of the water, or will he flounder in his final year? So far, the results are closer to the former, as Marner leads the team with 10 points including a recent three-assist effort against the Boston Bruins.

Since being drafted 4th overall in 2015, Marner has been spectacular for the Maple Leafs, registering 649 points in 585 games (including the nine this season) and anchoring the top line with Auston Matthews for the better part of nine seasons. Often criticized for his defensive lapses and lack of production in the playoffs, Marner is a game-changer whenever he steps on the ice, and is a big reason for the Maple Leafs’ regular season successes.

However, Marner is an elite player and will command a salary as such. Toronto needs to figure out whether it would be worth the cost to keep Marner, who, unlike other potential free agents, isn’t willing to take a hometown discount. Projections see Marner getting anywhere from $10.5-12M per year for his next contract, and while he’s been incredible: it’s way too much to commit to. We’ve seen the commitment lead to no success where it matters, and re-running the same thing over is just going to lead to more heartbreak.

It’s looking like it’ll be unfeasible for the Maple Leafs to keep Mitch Marner. He’s been integral to their Core Four, but it may be time to move on if Toronto doesn’t want to handicap their salary cap for the next decade.

Projected Result: Mitch Marner Signs With Chicago Blackhawks on a 7-year, $82.5M contract ($11.78M AAV)

John Tavares

Finally, we get to the hardest choice of the three. John Tavares has been monumental to not only the Maple Leafs but to the entire Toronto community. His impact on the city, and its residents, and his legacy will lead him to be one of the most beloved Maple Leafs of all time.

The former captain has struggled this season, finding his ice time diminished more and more each game, and hasn’t looked like his true self. Although he dealt with an illness earlier this season, Tavares hasn’t yet fully returned to form and it’s worrying. He’s also lost a step in terms of speed, and while it’s expected from someone who is 34 years old, it doesn’t bode well for a successful season.

The issue here is that Tavares’ $11M contract is expiring and it’s up to Toronto to find a spot for him. Still able to contribute, even with this year’s struggles, Tavares will not command the same money as Marner but he won’t automatically be thrown aside. Tavares’ willingness to stay in Toronto is a huge positive, but even at a discount Toronto can’t afford a worsening Tavares for the sake of not hurting feelings.

John Tavares will be an integral part of the Maple Leafs for the rest of his career, even if he doesn’t stay. If Brad Treliving and co. can get Tavares back on track and he’s willing to sign a discount then it’s a potential steal and there’s still time left. However, if he doesn’t pick it up, he may be packing his bags come July 1.