MLB’s No. 1 prospect has been struggling of late.

Jackson Holliday, Baltimore Orioles / Mark Cunningham/GettyImages

The Baltimore Orioles are on a minor slide, now 3.0 games behind the New York Yankees in a competitive AL East. There is still time for Baltimore to mount a final push, but not much. The O’s are trending toward a Wild Card berth and a do-or-die first round, which could complicate the path to World Series contention for baseball’s youngest heavyweight.

There is no denying the sheer volume of talent on the O’s roster, although injuries to the pitching staff have certainly clouded a once-crystalline postseason path. With new ownership in the mix, Baltimore has invested serious resources in building out MLB’s top farm system. The O’s have a young core that is unmatched around the league, with more tantalizing prospects on the way. It’s hard to be as good as the Orioles and have such a robust collection of talent coming down the pipeline. Baltimore is built for sustainable dominance in their division and the American League at large.

Perhaps the best example of Baltimore melding the present and the future is Jackson Holliday, baseball’s No. 1 overall prospect. The 20-year-old has been called up twice this season, spending the last couple months filling in for the injured Jorge Mateo at second base.

There have been undeniable flashes, including three home runs in a three-game stretch in early August. How the Orioles navigate this ongoing youth movement, however, will be fascinating to watch. Baltimore has a clear path to winning it all, but it could require sacrifice. Holliday, for all his natural ability and his importance to the O’s future, has not been up to par in recent weeks.

Some are beginning to state the obvious. He shouldn’t be on the postseason roster.

Jackson Holliday’s struggles lead to uncertainty about his postseason status for Orioles

Despite the immediate slugging flurry upon his second call-up in August, the overwhelming body of evidence proves that Holliday is not ready for the postseason. He has been among the most inconsistent hitters in the MLB this season. That is not to say the Orioles need to panic, or that Holliday has lost his luster as a long-term prospect. It just means that, at the ripe age of 20, Holliday probably shouldn’t be put in a position to fail on the postseason stage.

Prospect development is more patient in baseball than any other major American sport. The No. 1 pick is almost always a day-one starter in the NBA or NFL. But, in baseball, we generally give even the best prospects a few years of proper skill work and developmental reps in the minor league system before that elusive MLB call-up.

Holliday is ahead of the curve. He has been so dominant in Triple-A, at just 20, that he forced Baltimore’s hand a bit. The O’s certainly want Holliday in the lineup, opposite Gunner Henderson in the infield, as soon as possible. Again, we have seen what happens when Holliday is stringing together quality swings. It’s all a matter of consistency, which generally requires time and practice. A slow build.

The longer Holliday spends at the professional level, the fewer and further between his missteps will be. It’s easy to get worked up about his immediate struggles in the context of Baltimore’s razor-thin margin for error in the AL East standings, but with Holliday, opinions should be geared more toward the future. That, in and of itself, is a reason to keep the former No. 1 pick off the postseason roster. Any hand-wringing about Holliday’s MLB production before his 100th game probably misses the point. It’s not about 2024 for Holliday; it’s about 2025 and beyond, building diligently toward the future.

So, as the saying goes, patience is a virtue, and it’s a virtue Baltimore fans would be wise to heed when it comes to Jackson Holliday.