Elon Musk is betting his entire career on one man.

Of the many gambles that have marked Elon Musk’s career, few have been more daring than the one he is placing on Donald Trump.

From satellites to electric cars, brain chips to AI-powered robots, Musk owns a range of businesses that rely heavily on contracts and rules set by the federal government.

Yet in an election that most political analysts believe resembles a coin toss, the world’s richest man has tied his fame and fortune to Mr Trump’s latest bid for the White House.

In a conversation with Tucker Carlson – former Fox TV host, Musk joked: “If he (Mr. Trump) loses, I’m done.”

As the election enters its final stages, Musk’s support for Mr. Trump’s campaign has grown more vocal.

This week, it was revealed that Musk had donated at least $75 million to his pro-Trump group, America Pac. The group has reportedly spent more than $118 million on campaign efforts, including advertising, yard signs, and door-to-door outreach.

When Mr. Trump held a rally two weeks ago in Butler, Pennsylvania — the site of a failed assassination attempt on him in July — Musk was a surprise guest, jumping on stage like an excited child.

Musk has used X, the social network he owns, to push pro-Trump content. On Thursday, Musk returned to Pennsylvania, the most important swing state in the election, to make his own case for Trump to voters. During the hour-long rally, he donned a yellow Make America Great Again hat and offered some explanation for his unwavering support for Trump — a politician who has until recently been skeptical of electric vehicles.

Musk said the biggest reason for supporting Mr Trump was the need for “sensible regulation”, claiming that “SpaceX can build a giant rocket faster than the government can process permits, which is crazy”. He added: “If the trend of stifling business growth through over-regulation doesn’t change, we’re not going to get to Mars.”

The owner of Tesla, SpaceX, xAI and X has ambitions to shape the future of humanity — a Neuralink chip in the brain, a robot in the home, a driverless car to get to work, a rocket to colonize Mars. Musk is betting that if Mr Trump wins, he will have significant influence over how the government treats his companies.

The bet will pay off if SpaceX and its Starlink satellites can win more contracts from the US national security apparatus or if Tesla can win over Republican politicians skeptical of electric vehicles. It could also limit regulatory investigations into the safety of the company’s self-driving technology. And under Trump, X would be less likely to clash with the administration over Musk’s absolute notion of “free speech.”

Mr Trump himself has promised that if elected, Musk will lead an “effective department of government”.

“Regulators have been a thorn in Tesla’s side for years,” said Dan O’Dowd, founder of a software company and a critic of Tesla’s efforts in driverless cars. “Musk believes he is above the law.”

Notably, Musk and Trump were once political polar opposites. While the former president often described climate change as a “hoax,” Musk once boasted that Tesla’s mission was to “help reduce the risk of catastrophic climate change.”

Musk voted for candidates including Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in recent elections.

But over the past few months, Musk has not only become Mr Trump’s most influential supporter, but has also endorsed some shocking rhetoric, such as: “If Mr Trump doesn’t win, this is the last election.”

Musk’s transformation began during the pandemic. He chose to get vaccinated against Covid-19 but was skeptical of the government’s requirement for federal employees and contractors to get vaccinated. Musk also became increasingly resistant to “woke” culture and had a public spat with his transgender daughter.

Trevor Traina, a Trump donor who served as US ambassador to Austria during the former president’s term, said Musk was getting directly involved in politics for personal, not commercial, reasons. “As the richest man in the world, Elon doesn’t need anything. He’s just getting involved,” Traina said.

For Tesla, the risk of Musk’s election meddling is that it will alienate its natural customers. According to Pew Research, only 13% of Republicans say they are likely to seriously consider buying an electric car, compared with 45% of Democrats.

Trump himself is no Tesla ally. In an interview this week, he began by saying, “The problem with electric cars,” but then interrupted himself to note, “Elon Musk is a very good friend of mine.”

“It’s a high-risk, high-reward strategy. I think if Trump wins, he’ll look like a genius. If Trump loses, it’ll be pretty bad,” said Andrew Palmer, former Aston Martin CEO. “While I think most people admire what he’s doing, I think there’s a risk that it will spur people to look for alternatives to Tesla.”

However, some of Musk’s rivals in Silicon Valley speculate that his goals for Tesla are long-term.

They say Musk is aware that Tesla’s core business is increasingly threatened by cheap Chinese electric vehicles and rapidly advancing battery technology. The company has not launched a new mass-market product since the Model Y in 2020, and it remains unclear when a more affordable $25,000 vehicle will be introduced.

Instead of launching new cars, Musk has pivoted the company to self-driving cars, robot taxis and an AI-powered humanoid robot called Optimus. Last week, the billionaire presented his sci-fi vision of the future at a lavish unveiling of “We, Robot.” The dancing robots and golden electric taxi wowed his fans, but investors were unimpressed by the lack of details. The company’s stock fell 9%.

Drew Dickson, founder of Albert Bridge Capital, estimates that Tesla’s car business could be worth between $70 billion and $100 billion. By his calculations, that means the remaining $650 billion of the company’s market value—and as much as $90 billion of Musk’s personal wealth—is largely based on investor optimism about the company’s unproven technologies, all of which face significant regulatory hurdles before they can be brought to market.

If Trump wins, Musk can hope Tesla will get more sympathy from the federal government. Currently, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, the Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission are all investigating Tesla’s claims about its driver-assistance systems. NHTSA said Friday that it had opened a new investigation into Tesla after a car with “full self-driving” technology struck and killed a pedestrian.

Musk promised attendees that self-driving cars would be available in Texas and California starting next year and that self-driving taxis would be on the road by 2027, but both required Tesla to secure at least a “Level 4, High Automation” classification and permits from state regulators at a much faster pace than any of its rivals have achieved.

“I tend to be a little optimistic about the timeframe,” Musk admitted at the event.

Of Musk’s companies, SpaceX may benefit the most from his close ties to a U.S. president. Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict the company’s revenue could triple to $63 billion by 2030, largely thanks to Starlink, its satellite internet business that operates a network of 6,000 low-orbit satellites. SpaceX has already passed 100 launches this year.

Regarding the doubts surrounding his outsized support for Mr Trump, Musk insisted that he was only acting out of concern for the country. “I’m in politics right now because I think the future of America and the future of civilization is at stake.”