George Russell has managed something that neither Fernando Alonso, Jenson Button or Nico Rosberg could ever achieve alongside the seven-time World Champion…

…Russell is the first of Lewis Hamilton’s six team-mates to beat him in their overall qualifying head to head.

George Russell has won the Mercedes qualifying head-to-head against Lewis Hamilton

George Russell v Lewis Hamilton: Crunching the data

The one-lap pace data, where Russell leads Hamilton 16-5 in the 21 races completed so far, is clear cut. The average qualifying performance between the two drivers is -0.206s in favour of George Russell.

With this figure, a head to head qualifying tie in 2023 and not bad numbers in his ‘rookie’ year as Hamilton’s team-mate, Russell has thus become the only one to beat the seven-time World Chamipion with the same machinery in their overall team-mate relationship.

Rosberg was the only one to do it before Russell in a single season back in 2014, where he outscored Hamilton 12-7. Hamilton ended up winning the head-to-head race to claim his first title with Mercedes. And in their four years as teammates, it is Hamilton who has a better overall record in qualifying results against the German driver.

As we can see, qualifying has also been one of Hamilton’s strong points over the years, but what has happened to make him look like a completely different driver this season? Where does Russell have the advantage over him in qualifying?

Hamilton has missed Q3 on five occasions this year, three of which have been in Q1. The last two occasions have occurred in the last three races which has further opened up the debate and negative feeling around Hamilton’s qualifying performance.

It is particularly difficult looking at the data and telemetry available to us to get a straight answer as to why this is happening. In fact, not even Mercedes is able to find an answer as Andrew Shovlin recently admitted after the Brazilian GP.

George Russell 16-5 Lewis Hamilton: Theories behind the big gap

One theory is that Russell tends to run a more qualifying-focused set-up with lower downforce and higher top speed while Hamilton has a more race-focused set-up with the aim of better tyre management. This would explain why Hamilton is able to find a better feeling on Sundays.

But what is clear is that Hamilton has lost confidence in the W15. It’s a car with a very limited sweet spot and displays erratic behaviour even between sessions on the same weekend. A slight variation in temperature or track conditions completely changes the behaviour of the W15.

Hamilton is a driver who needs total confidence in his car. Because of his aggressive corner entry driving style, he loves a car that is able to rotate quickly but very smoothly. This is something he lacks in one-lap performance this year where the lack of grip on corner entry is clearly detrimental to his natural style.

The current cars rely aerodynamically on the famous ground effect and with particularly stiff front suspensions, which make the cars very difficult to handle especially on very bumpy circuits. It is a problem that Red Bull, for example, also has to contend with at the moment with only Max Verstappen being able to extract the best out of the RB20.

Russell, on the other hand, has shown an extra point of adaptability in qualifying. Not only now in his time as a Mercedes driver, but also in his early days at Williams where he managed to get a Q1 car into Q3 in difficult conditions.

In other words, comparing Hamilton to Russell is not comparing him to just any other driver. Comparing Hamilton to Russell, who is also known as ‘Mr. Saturday’ is probably comparing him to one of the best qualifiers on the current grid, even though, obviously, a seven-time World Champion is expected to be able to beat him with more or less ease.

Russell, prior to signing for Mercedes, had only lost in the qualifying battle on two occasions. Both against Nicholas Latifi in the 2021 season where he beat the Canadian 20-2. In 2020, he beat him 16-0. And in 2019, his first year in F1, he beat Robert Kubica 21-0 head to head.

But most likely Hamilton’s lack of performance transcends the sporting and technical aspect. We can even add a more philosophical issue that goes beyond the complex world of Formula 1.

The bigger Lewis Hamilton picture

After losing the 2021 World Championship in Abu Dhabi in a controversial manner to say the least and with a Mercedes team in decline since the 2022 season, it appears clear that Hamilton has also lost the motivation to do great things behind the wheel. At least for the time being.

His move to Ferrari is clearly a sign of intent. The intention of a new start and a new motivation: to return to the top alongside a team that is also in dire need of winning Championships after many years of drought.

And despite being almost 40 years old, Hamilton is surely saving some of his best for a new challenge where he will have to give his best in order not to disappoint the Tifosi… but also himself.