What would Jayson Tatum have to do to win MVP?

The Boston Celtics have grabbed two statement victories against Eastern Conference contenders early in this season – first against the Knicks on opening night and then again with a 119-108 victory over the Milwaukee Bucks on Monday.

Four games is too small a sample size to say a lot about the Celtics, but there are two observations that can be made without seeming premature.

First, the Celtics have, once again, assembled a historically special team. And second, it will be very hard for Jayson Tatum to win MVP.

On opening night, he looked committed to seizing his MVP moment, ending the game with a gaudy 37 points while shooting 72.7% from beyond the arc. But on Monday night, the streaky-shooting version of Tatum came back when he finished the game with only 15 points, going 1-of-8 from three.

Make no mistake, Tatum always contributes to winning, whether he’s shooting the ball well or not. But if you’re just reading Monday’s box score, or if you had Tatum in a parlay, you’d think Payton Pritchard outplayed him.

While Tatum has accomplished a lot in his young career and has shown he’s capable of games like opening night, the 15-point outings tend to stick to him in the minds of NBA fans and MVP voters.

But, there’s still a path for Tatum to build a strong case to come away with the MVP. History has shown that if a player can improve statistically after already winning a title, MVP voters will  likely reward him for that.

The vast majority of MVP winners since the NBA-ABA merger in 1976 won their first MVP before their first title. Only five players since 1976 won their first MVP after their first title — Bill Walton, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Tim Duncan and Kobe Bryant.

Most of those players were nowhere close to being finished products when they won their first titles, but when they improved their game, they were rewarded with an MVP.

If Tatum can show improvement, becoming a more consistent shooter on a night-to-night basis after winning a title, MVP voters could be swayed.

The statistical profile of an MVP in the 21st century is one of a high-usage player, which Tatum really isn’t. The last 15 MVP winners averaged 28 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists, and they ranked near the top in win share and in usage rate.

The model MVP in recent history looks a lot like Tatum’s idol, Kobe Bryant, a consistent-shooting, high-usage player with a definite killer instinct.

But Tatum doesn’t play like his idol did. He plays like Kobe’s one-time rival, Tim Duncan: a fundamentally sound player who’s just as likely to make plays for his talented supporting cast as he is to shoot the ball himself. On a bad shooting night like Monday against the Bucks, a player like Kobe probably wouldn’t have made this pass to set up Pritchard, but Tatum did.

Tatum’s net rating for Monday, 23.1, was higher than Pritchard and Jaylen Brown, but both outscored him. In marquee matchups against other MVP candidates like Giannis Antetokounmpo, it doesn’t matter if he’s impacting winning in other ways; the shooting will stick out like a neon sign.

If Tatum can become a consistent shooter, then he can let his narrative for MVP carry him to the award.

While it’s not all about narratives, nobody’s going to make up a storyline of why Ish Smith should be the MVP. It’s not just ‘Who was the best player?’ because if it was, LeBron James and Michael Jordan would have won 12 MVPs. Basketball writers and commentators comprise most of the voting body. Therefore, storylines are highly important.

If Tatum can find a way to a career year the season after winning his first title, it’s already impressive enough. But having a career year after being publicly humiliated by Steve Kerr during the Olympics would create a storyline worthy of being crowned MVP.

>Sure, he’d also have to outduel the other candidates in primetime national television games and could use a big performance in the All-Star Game to capitalize on NBA podcasts needing material during the break.

But if he drops 40 or more points on the Golden State Warriors in their two matchups this season, all while mean-mugging Kerr after every bucket, his MVP odds will skyrocket.

Overall, this could be Tatum’s year if he seizes the opportunity for it.

You don’t just fall into having an MVP, you have to want it. And if his visible frustration on Monday night was any indication, he wants it badly this year.